NFL Picks Week 5

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets — Sunday, Oct. 9, 4:15 p.m.

Everyone who cares about football at this university will be watching this one. If you can’t make time for Jets vs. Pats you seriously have your priorities mixed up.

The Pats are coming off a good win at Oakland and the Jets are coming off arguably their worst loss during the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez era — other than their loss on MNF against New England last year.

Conventional wisdom points to a New England blowout with the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL going up against a defense that statistically has been extremely disappointing this season.

But if you look inside the Jets’ defensive numbers, they actually have only really struggled against their opponents’ run game; they rank No. 27 in run defense but rank 2 in pass defense.

Interestingly enough, New England ranks No. 1 in pass offense and doesn’t have a great ground game. They do rank 9 in rushing yards per game but lets be honest, that all comes out of respect for No. 12.

The big question for me is which Jets team will show up on Sunday. Nick Mangold needs to play in order for the Jets to have a shot at this, but if he doesn’t it could make all the difference.

Rex Ryan has said that the Jets will get back to the ground and pound offensive style that led them to two consecutive AFC championship games, and I have to believe that the rushing numbers will improve against the Pats.

If there are two things the Jets have proven in the last two years it is this: They can win on the road, and they can win when people give them no shot. I am betting that they pull off a shocker in New England for the second straight time.

The Pick: New York

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers — Sunday, Oct. 9, 8:20 p.m.

Green Bay dominated Atlanta in the playoffs last year in the Georgia Dome in what was their first step to a Super Bowl Championship. This year Green Bay has dominated, busting out of the gate with a 4-0 record with wins over teams like New Orleans and Chicago.

Atlanta has been a disappointment this season posting a record of 2-2 despite being picked by a substantial amount of people to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

I am not saying Atlanta can’t win this game, especially since they are playing at home, but the Packers are just too good of a football team at the moment. Last game Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another two.

No quarterback in the league is on the same level as Rodgers right now and that doesn’t bode well for an Atlanta defense that ranks 24 in pass defense. I think Atlanta will hang tough for most of the game before Green Bay pulls away late.

The Pick: Green Bay

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears — Monday, Oct. 10, 8:30 p.m.

Detroit is the talk of the NFC after opening the season with a 4-0 record including monumental come-from-behind wins against Minnesota and Dallas in consecutive weeks. Detroit is certainly a feel-good story, but the combined records of the four teams they’ve beaten is 5-10.

Chicago, on the other hand, has played Atlanta, Green Bay and New Orleans already and still has managed a 2-2 record.

Matt Forte continues to put up absurd numbers — both receiving and rushing — and the Bears can look forward to a much easier schedule in the coming weeks.

While I don’t think that the Lions are a fluke by any means, they have to come down to earth sooner or later. Last week the Bills’ dream run to open the season came to end, and I say on Monday night, Detroit’s run will too.

The Pick: Chicago