New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills — Sunday Oct. 16, 1 p.m.

The Bills are 4-1 yet somehow do not rank in the top 10 in total offense or total defense — in fact they rank 30th in total defense. But the Bills can run the football — they are fourth in the NFL with 138 ypg on the ground — and they can make plays in crunch time.

The Giants are 3-2 but really haven’t beaten a quality team this year. I think its fair to say that beating the Eagles — the Bills beat them too — isn’t a quality win at this point. And after dropping last week’s game to the Seahawks at home, the Giants need a home victory against Buffalo to stay atop a wide open NFC East.

Last weekend I picked against the Lions on the basis that eventually an unproven team has to come back down to earth and I got burned. This week I have the opportunity to make the same mistake or justify my original basis. Because the Bills — unlike the Lions last week — are on the road and because the Giants need a redemption win after last weeks devastating loss against Seattle, I am hoping I don’t make the same mistake twice.

The Pick: New York

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers — Sunday Oct. 16, 1 p.m.

I’d be willing to bet everything I own on the fact that no one predicted a 4-1 record and 5-0 records for the 49ers and Lions respectively. But here we are and this game is one of the best of the weekend. Detroit looked great on MNF and their miraculous rise to the top of the NFC continues against the NFC West leading 49ers.

I honestly thought Detroit would slip up in their first really important game of the season — divisional game on MNF. But after the way they handled the Bears, I am a believer. Calvin Johnson is freakishly talented and is by far the receiver who is the most fun to watch at this point. This game being at home makes all the difference as the Lions move to 6-0.

The Pick: Detroit

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans — Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:15 p.m.

The Ravens are coming off a bye and the Texans are coming off a really bad loss to Oakland. The Ravens defense vs. the Texans offense is a really intriguing matchup in this one.

But honestly, I think Baltimore has the most vicious defense in the NFL. And if you look at their schedule they have a legitimate shot at finishing the regular season with a 14-2 and record. The Ravens don’t even need an easy schedule to be the number one team in the AFC, with a defense like that, they can beat anyone.

The Pick: Baltimore